Let me start with something very simple and that is researchers don’t have accurate or complete data. The U.S. National Center for Health Statistics hasn’t collected national data on divorce rates since 1996. This has led some research companies to use surveys which as we all know are just small samples of our population.
Some researches try to obtain data by state but the states usually have to defer to local counties which let’s face it the data integrity isn’t going to be the same from county to county. Plus California, Indiana, and Louisiana don’t track divorces which make national statistics completely inaccurate and very irresponsible for researches to share. So I hope you’d agree with me that right off the bat the 50% divorce statistic is inaccurate.
Let me give you something else to consider. Researchers create divorce rates by taking the
number of marriages in one year and comparing them to the number of divorces filed that same year. There are actually a lot of problems with doing it this way. First of all, it doesn’t take into consideration the number of marriages and divorces that are taking place by the same people over and over again. It’s kind of like using just the number of robberies taking place in a particular city without considering the very high percentage of repeat offenders; meaning that robberies could be up but not the number of criminals.
With this in mind the divorce data isn’t pure because of the added variable of multiple divorces by the same people. Plus think about this little tidbit; marriages have steadily declined over the last ten years so there is less marriage data going into these research companies’ annual comparisons of marriage versus divorce. No legitimate research company would neglect considering this major factor.
Another very important factor is they don’t share that divorce rates are different between various segments of our society. I strongly believe that Christians who are loyal church goers are much less likely to file for divorce regardless of what we might have been told. Think about it, this data doesn’t exist so any researcher who claims Christians have the same divorce rates as non-Christians are wrong. I highly doubt these research companies are pro-religion; they are either lying or they don’t understand statistical analysis.
College educated people are also less likely to get a divorce. Back in the 90’s the National Center for Health Statistics reported that people who were college educated had a 15% divorce rate. I realize this is old data but it does provide a little insight. A true researcher wouldn’t neglect to consider variables such as the ones I mentioned above.
I can only use the limited data that is available but my guess is that most people have good odds of staying married especially those who are Christians and college educated. Due to the variables not being used I believe divorce rates are closer to 35% not 50% but I certainly can’t say this for sure. When it comes to research it’s certainly garbage in garbage out and there isn’t enough good data when it comes to divorce rates to report anything for sure.
I mentioned at the beginning of this document that I’ll prove current research is wrong and I hope I did so. Keep in mind this is just one subject; I very much believe most of the reporting that we get daily isn’t statistically accurate. They don’t share how they did their research and they usually don’t share how many people were in their sample base. My hope is that you won’t take anything at face value and instead use your critical thinking to surmise whether what you’re hearing or reading is true.